CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM

Climate has a pervasive effect on the U.S. through its impact on the environment, natural resources, andthe economy. To respond to the challenge of understanding climate and climate variability, the ClimateChange Science Program (CCSP) was established in 2002 (www.climatescience.go) as a follow-on tothe US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). It is providing the Nation and the world with thescience-based knowledge to predict change, manage risk, and take advantage of opportunities resultingfrom climate change and climate variability. Research conducted through CCSP builds on the scientificadvances of the last few decades and deepens our understanding of how the interplay between naturalfactors and human activities affect the climate system. The CCSP engages thirteen U.S. agencies in aconcerted interagency program of basic research, comprehensive observations, integrative modeling, anddevelopment of products for decision-makers. Consistent with the FY 2009 Interagency ImplementationPriorities memo, NSF provides support for the broad range of fundamental research activities that form asound basis for other mission-oriented agencies in the CCSP and the Nation at large.The Earth’s climate is determined by highly complex interactions between and among the atmosphere,hydrosphere, cryosphere, geosphere, and biosphere. NSF programs address these components byinvesting in fundamental discovery, utilizing the full range of intellectual resources of the scientificcommunity; research infrastructure, to provide advanced capabilities; and innovative educationalactivities. As a key participating agency in the CCSP, NSF encourages interdisciplinary activities andfocuses particularly on Earth system processes and the consequences of change. High priorities for theagency include data acquisition and information management activities necessary for global changeresearch, the enhancement of models designed to improve our understanding of Earth system processes,the development of new, innovative Earth observing instruments and platforms, and the development ofadvanced analytic research methods. NSF also supports fundamental research on the general processesused by organizations to identify and evaluate policies for mitigation, adaptation, and other responses tovarying environmental conditions. Through its investment, NSF contributes to CCSP by providing acomprehensive scientific foundation for many of the synthesis

FY 2009 Areas of Emphasis:

Atmospheric Composition – NSF programs in tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry will continue inFY 2009 to address the composition of the atmosphere and its relation to climate variability and change,and linkages between the atmosphere and the biosphere, land surface, oceans, and cryosphere. Studies ofthe transport and transformation of gaseous constituents and aerosols provide insights into the radiativeand cloud nucleating properties of the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are particularly important since they are the principal absorbers and re-radiators of heat. Results of these studies serve as important inputsfor the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).Climate Variability and Change – In FY 2009, NSF programs will continue to emphasize climatevariability and change across temporal and spatial scales, supporting observational campaigns andnumerous analytical and modeling activities. These activities will help to address biases in global climatemodels. Ocean science efforts will concentrate on changes in ocean structure, circulation, andinteractions with the atmosphere to improve our current understanding of the processes and models thataddress future changes, particularly those that may happen abruptly. The Community Climate SystemModel will continue to improve by incorporating additional complexity so that the model will betterincorporate aerosol radiative forcing, stratospheric dynamics, interactive chemistry and biogeochemicalcycles. Analyses of model output will focus on extreme climate events, such as hurricanes, droughts, andmajor ecological disturbances, in order to determine the mechanisms responsible and to evaluate theirrepresentation in models. Studies of paleoclimatology will continue to be supported as a means toprovide baseline data on natural climate variability from the past and from key climatic regions. Thesestudies improve our understanding of the natural variability of the climate system and in particular willenable reconstructions and evaluations of past environmental change as inputs for model validations.The Global Water Cycle – NSF supports research to understand all aspects of the global water cycle.Relevant programs will continue to explore ways to utilize more effectively the wide range of hydrologicdata types – continuous and discrete information from a variety of platforms – for research purposes.Information from process studies will be used to refine models through parameterizations of sub-gridprocesses, particularly the fluxes of water through the Earth system. High resolution cloud systemmodels are being refined to address the persistent problems of moist convection and cloud processes –two of the more challenging and uncertain components in climate change calculations. Fifteen prototypeobservatories are being established to explore critical scientific issues related to the design of hydrologicobservatories. The first established observatory is part of the Sustainability of Semi-arid Hydrology andRiparian Areas (SAHRA) Science and Technology Center and works with stakeholders in translatingresearch advances into useful products and addressing uncertainty.Land-Use and Land-Cover Change – Several NSF programs continue to address key aspects of landuseand land-cover change through studies in ecological rates of change and related species diversity,Arctic systems, temporal variability, water and energy influences on vegetative systems, and diversehuman influences on land use.Global Carbon Cycle – NSF provides support for a wide variety of carbon cycle research activities, forcritical long-running oceanic time series stations and the Keeling CO2 record, as well as for planning anddata management. FY 2009 investigations will continue to examine a range of topics in terrestrial andmarine ecosystems and their relations to the carbon cycle. Research in terrestrial settings will explore, forexample, carbon storage, delivery of carbon by rivers, carbon fluxes from high-latitude soils, carbonexport from mountains, and submarine groundwater discharge in the oceans, ocean acidification andremineralization in mesopelagic zones. Carbon cycle studies will integrate observational data into modelsto provide insights for understanding key aspects of the global carbon cycle and feedbacks on the climatesystem and on strategies to investigate and adapt to climate change through CO2 sequestration.Ecosystems – Several NSF programs address terrestrial and marine ecosystems through observational,experimental, modeling, and laboratory studies. The Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Programsupports the collection of time-series data on key ecosystem processes and funds research on the driversof ecosystem change in terrestrial and marine systems. The Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics program

will continue to study the impact of global ocean changes on marine ecosystems through specificsynthesis activities focused on the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Research will continue to focuson understanding the impact of increasing carbon dioxide levels on the calcification rates, productivityand symbiotic relationships of hermatypic (reef-building) corals.Human Contributions and Responses – NSF supports basic research on the processes through whichpeople (individually, in groups, or through organizations) interact with natural environmental systems.FY 2009 funding supports projects that focus on decision-making under uncertainty associated withclimate change. These projects are expected to produce new knowledge and tools that should facilitateimproved decision-making by various stakeholder groups trying to deal with uncertainties associated withfuture climate variability and change.

Recent Research Highlights

► Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply: Climate scientists from the Scripps Institution ofOceanography and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory are collaborating with researchers fromthe NSF-funded San Diego Supercomputer Center to ascertain how global climate change is affectingwater supply in the western U.S. The scientists first run amodel of the global climate on supercomputers, "zoom in" tosee the impact in the western U.S., and analyze the findingsand verify the model accuracy by comparing results with realworldobservations. Scientists are challenged with how tohandle large amounts of generated data--many terabytes (aterabyte is one thousand gigabytes). To manage the data,move it between institutions, and share it, researchers are usinga special tool, called the "Storage Resource Broker," developedby the San Diego Supercomputer Center.

► Advancing U.S. Leadership in Climate Research and Education:Project Atmospheric brown clouds (ABC) is a concerted effort among aninternational group of distinguished atmospheric scientists and researchers,governments in Asia, and research institutions in Asia, Europe, and theUnited States to address the causes and impacts of atmospheric brownclouds, which are a major environmental challenge facing the Asia-Pacificregion. Unlike issues such as greenhouse gases and global warming, theeffects on climate from pollution aerosols and other impacts are universallyaccepted throughout Asia. Project ABC provides high visibility for theUnited States in its leadership role on climate research and education in theSouth and Asia-Pacific region, which is home to more than half of theworld's population.