Is running out of oil?

A lot of talk of renewable energy and raised questions about the time of the end of the oil age, the simple answer is that oil wealth, like other natural resources are for the decrease and atrophy, and eventually subject to final depletion. Is running out of oil?

Graph by M. King Hubert in 1956,

and shows the estimated values for

the summit of the world's oil production

In this context it should be noted carefully and wise men and the founder of OPEC manages many years ago, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, said jokingly, while on one occasion that "the oil age will not end the oil depletion, as the Stone Age did not end the depletion stones." Regarding "Petro pessimists" such as Colin Campbell, the confirmation of the provocative and exaggerated by the Sheikh, which the group speculated for many years the disappearance of oil resources, and reached up to defend their vision to form a group which they called "the study of peak oil." And away from any Dougmaiip, in fact not a joke and that he was not Yamany fly with Campbell and pessimists can give definite answer on this issue, because the oil and Nvadh involves the status of a complex and linked to several factors. This leads us to talk about, "Bell Hubert" (1) to measure the oil reserves, which is a coordinate chart in the form of bell-term record of the oil wealth to benefit the upcoming line indicates the horizontal and vertical offset register used by the oil reserves run out. And the highest point in the graph which defines the form of bell, representing the so-called "summit" of exploitation, called "Hubert Summit", including the vertical indicator begins to decline on record low amount of oil reserves located up to Nvadh compared to the lack of alternative findings.
The measurement of "Hubert summit" during the last few years, oil analysts at the hands of successive amendments, which increased from the high to the summit marked the highest increase in oil consumption, but increased the other hand, large landing lie horizontally missionaries progressive extension of the time period during which the prospective availability of those resources. The design of short Hubert increasingly higher and wider at the same time and, of course, the most gratifying is the movement of the horizontal line on the right, pointing out that the moment will run out of oil, but too late. This is the case for years, is still warning of running out of oil since the beginning of practice postpone the exploitation of the oil industry, when Mr. Al Hamel drilling wells in Texas Spindltob on the tenth of January 1901. In order to determine the moment of running out of oil in order to adopt the necessary decisions to manage the petroleum resources on a regular basis, we must start from the more specific questions, frees us from the families of speculation: What is the What is the amount of oil we are talking about? What is the amount of current consumption of oil and what is expected in future? Any technological means and the count now are those that may be available for future exploitation of the reserve?; And at any price and to what extent?
Petroleum Reserve
We say that there is no absolute consensus for defining the concept of reserve fuel, Valmaahid, companies and governments are using this concept as the point from a number of criteria. The generalized method is agreed upon in February 2000, and differentiate between: Proven reserves:

1. the possibility of exploitation rate exceeds 90%.
2. Reserve potential: the possibility of exploitation rate is estimated at about 50%.
3. Reserve as possible: What percentage of this possibility when the 5%.

Nevertheless, the assessment of oil reserves remains subject to the vagaries of geopolitical factors related to or linked to the interests of firms, in reality there is an unbiased estimate of the one or the other and free in the interest of one of the parties. For example, the assessment of hydrocarbon reserves in the Caucasus, which have come to occupy an important place today, is still a matter of doubt. It is difficult today, the ratification of the information in a few years and according to their source, have made this region a reserve between the swings and weaknesses at the same time. Since such information or that can influence the decisions of great geopolitical importance, such as identifying the best oil pipelines and supply lines and the recommended capacity, and in many occasions, companies of this sector is obliged to correct the estimates of reserves available to it, once reduced, as happened recently in the case of company Repsol, Shell, and other increases as it did, for example, Petro's land after the new discovery of large reserves in the sea Tube. The oil reserves, proven the end of 2006 to one billion and two hundred million barrels, available in the Middle East, including 724 billion barrels, followed by a large margin and the African oil reserves, which reached about 117 thousand million barrels, and then Central and South America a hundred thousand million barrels. While not available in a range of countries, however, an estimated 17 billion barrels, led by Russia, and North America, and the rest of the former Soviet Union, and at the bottom of the list followed by Asia and Europe. This can be estimated like the whole focus of debate, but in all cases concerning the types of crude could use the traditional means of current technology, the extraction and prices reasonable. With regard to the global production of oil has reached its size at the same time period to 81.7 million barrels a day, and topped the Middle East b extracted 25.6 million barrels, followed by North America's 13.7 million barrels and 9.8 million from Russia, and ten million in Africa , and 7.9 million from Asia and the Pacific, and 6.9 million from South and Central America, and 5.2 million from Europe and, finally, 2.6 million of the former Soviet Union. The above shows that the rate of exploitation, ranging from the Reserve:

• About 10% less than the reserve for Europe and the exploiter is little exaggerated.
• And about 80% to the Middle East reserves, which is funded and will remain the basic universal.

Knowing that the basic problem, which confirms the theory it advocates the rapid depletion of oil fields is not the discovery of alternative compensate those that run out gradually.

The right thing, which is no doubt that the time of cheap oil and easy to reach over, and that the glories of the vast fields, such as spaces, Maroun, Oornagwa, North Field, and Ostrakan had ended and that, in some cases, as an example of the United States, where the proportion of exploitation linked to the available reserve, has been tracking throughout the last twenty years of a downward unswerving. Even some of the new discoveries of oil fields such as South Pars in Iran, Kazakhstan Ckshagan, those geopolitical and technical problems which caused great failure of some Western companies that have ventured in this area. If we are to meet the anticipated demand of oil until 2015, based on the indicators of current consumption, it is necessary to add sixty million barrels per day of current production which is not attainable, because it requires the discovery and development of ten new fields beyond the size of each one of them the size of the field of the North Field. But if the crude that does not diminish the traditional confirms that the time had run out of oil approached, because the growing global demand and this situation obliges us to adopt the kinds of oil fields with unusual and unrecognized Kahtiatat be exploited. Of asphalt in the Athabasca sands in the Canadian province of Alberta, where the level of oil reserves there, beyond the current level of recoverable in Saudi Arabia, however, requires use of the land Tharika dramatically, with the mean consumption of water and energy as well as environmental hazards. For heavy crude and heavy industry, who is very Orinoco, Venezuela and please extraction and marketing of both the way in place or in other ways, and this of course, if the policy of the Venezuelan government has allowed the Bolivarian current massive investments necessary to meet the technical challenge involved in this species. There are also fields exist in very deep water and to exploit them to the technical difficulties now facing can not be compared to those faced by the current discoveries of the marine fields in the Gulf of Mexico, for example, the North Sea, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea and Angola. Toby is the field which was discovered off the city of Santos, Brazil, usually over a field, but the costs of exploitation of not less than fifty thousand million dollars, Brazil has also jumped into account a reserve capable of being exploited in the near term, a wide field may contain approximately eight thousand million barrels, and includes layer up to the intensity of the rate of five hundred meters deployed on the eight hundred miles in length and presentation of hundred kilometers, but this is a whole field at a depth of six thousand square meters, of which thousands of water meters from the sea. Several years ago, Norway declared that exploited a very successful way of hydrocarbon reserves are the North Sea, the huge potential in the water, such as the North Sea Berntz, which may be enhanced by the polar petroleum reserve, including the reserve potential of greenland

Although it is difficult to estimate the potential of all of this reserve at the present time, however, did not represent an obstacle to the forces of the Great Northern to correct its attention to the Arctic as a resource important not only for fuel, as is the case for Russia, which has the national flag in the depths of the sea area has been defined so be identified and economically exploited source of serious international disputes in the future. The major obstacle is the transportation of crude through the frozen seas during a long period of the year, unless the product easy to melt ice on climate change, the opening of new roads. There is also a rich potential of both Alaska and the north-eastern Siberia, is still facing the problems have been overcome, and related to the preservation of the environment (such as the Nature Reserve in Alaska) and the fragile balance of the components of the region. Thus, if the calculation of all possibilities have been mentioned for the measurement of oil reserves, it may double by not less than 250%, up to and including the percentage had more than three billion barrels of oil, exceeding the numbers that determine the possibilities and potential oil reserves in the event.

Factors affecting the depletion of oil

Stop the depletion of oil, and after assessing the existing reserve, on three factors with the first level of aggregate demand, followed by the amount of technological progress and, finally, the market price.

Increasing demand

All forecasts, regardless of its origin, is in the same direction, demand for energy will increase in future periods by 2% annually, and the report of the International Atomic Energy Agency for the year 2007 has identified the rise of 1.8%, resulting in a total increase could reach 55% 2030. The emerging countries will play and, specifically, China and India, which attached special importance to the Agency, as well as some countries in the process of growth, a key role in this increase, the expected demand. It will be the group of States, which includes Brazil, Russia, India and China are responsible for 80% of this increase, as China's imports will double and four times, three times India's imports, while the energy consumption in industrialized countries, guided by some balance, and will contribute to the concept of efficient use of energy in controlling this balance. For example, improvements to the fleet of vehicles and the use of biofuels or even the use of batteries from the United States would make the expected increase in the consumption of traditional gasoline up 10.6 million barrels per day compared with 9.2 million currently, and in fact would represent a decrease in the consumption of traditional gasoline which would be limited to the 8.5 million, and the remainder, which represents about one million would be a biofuel, thus saving about one million barrels to compensate the difference. Note that the graph of the world total consumption between 1950 and 2000 show a sharp upward shows that the increase in energy consumption in this period was double the increase in the number of the world's population. Despite the increased consumption of more than ten thousand million tons of oil equivalent from 2000, it had reached levels stabilized between 2025 and 2050 about 12 thousand million tons of oil equivalent. If so, the per capita consumption of energy will stabilize in the number may be less than 2 tons of oil equivalent. This result takes into account several facts, Kzayadp anticipated in the number of cars to influential groups of the population in the consumption of oil. In China, there are currently equivalent to 12 cars per thousand people, compared with 620 cars per thousand per capita the United States, and 487 per thousand in Japan and Korea, and 444 per thousand live in Western Europe. With the advent of America in 2025 will increase slightly while the number of cars will increase and the amazing way in other countries such as China, where a car could reach 74 per thousand people, will double in Russia and the countries of the former Soviet Union to reach 312 cars, as well as in Latin America, where the ratio will be 269 car per thousand people. In any case, would be a demand from the transport needs of the bulk of oil consumption and will continue to grow despite the improvements are not made, both on land and means of transport or air, as the rate of fuel consumption for both the engine or the passenger has dropped sharply since 1960, However, this rate has tended to be stable since 2005.

Technological progress

With regard to technology, in a nutshell, it must be emphasized that the vast improvements have been made at all stages of oil production from the discovery phase, through more accurate knowledge of the clearing operations geological basins; to drilling to allow more scrutiny and attempts at reducing the number of failed attempts, the end of the development of extraction too rough offshore to maintain appropriate levels of production of conventional crude; leading to the production stage. In the technical field may also result in the increase in the recovery of the fields that have already exploited to a very significant increase in the reserve available, according to Hai Wei recent report, financed by the Research Program of the European Union, the consumption of crude in the road transport sector has been reduced by 40% from now to the year 2050 due to the use of hydrogen. According to the same report had been reached in the year 2030 the number of cars to the fleet around the threshold of 16 million cars, and the total accumulated investment has reached sixty thousand million euro infrastructure.

Market price

The price of a barrel of Brent in November 1998 to less than ten dollars; and exceeded the price of the same drum on February 27, 2008 dollars per cent barrier, and this was to never occur to anyone, that the price per barrel up to this high and so quickly, even the most pessimistic analysts. Proceeding from this, there is nothing to prevent speculation Balbrnt up the price of $ 125 and 150, as do some financial institutions, or in the case of a dramatic scene as an attack on Iran and the U.S. may result from Shell traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, or even the price of Brent to two hundred dollars, as acknowledged by Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani himself recently gave him in Madrid. Whatever the future price fork, it is certain that the interests of all calls for upgrading the search for alternative solutions, and clarify the overall analysis of the relationship between the price of production and the market price, the price of production ranges between five and seven dollars for Saudi crude and country, between 15 and twenty dollars for the water extract of deep, but for the price of heavy crude production of about 25 per shelf, and for the Canadian tar sands start price of 45 dollars. With all the clarity of the drawing room and Hubert chart rise evenly, and make the reserve available to increase at 15 billion barrels of U.S. dollars to 4.5 billion barrels at the 75 to 80 dollars, this may include reserve items out of non-traditional raw materials are extracted from the deep water, and oil extracted and the Arctic depths of the very large and very heavy rough, sand and continental plates ..

Abstracts ..

Is running out of oil? .. Permission to go back to the beginning, will not run out of oil soon, and looking forward to soon, despite speculation Nvadh pessimists such as Campbell, who, although they can level at the tip of the argument to uphold all of the elements at hand, they put a "summit" chart in 2015 about the production of the maximum estimated thirty thousand million barrels of oil annually, and up through his decline in production to 15 billion barrels of oil annually, within 2050. We also find the expectations of others based on the models and the International Energy Agency, and go to the clarification of some investments, the Agency has determined that the same figures for the next thirty years, to 22 billion dollars, as measured by daily consumption of more than ninety million barrels a day, and then send it to some 116 million. There is a substantial risk that the reserve is available to three billion, or the possibility of a weak up four billion, and reach the line of the graph the slope up to the year 2100. Thus, the "summit," the production and the level of decline depend on the two different points of view fully, and can be placed years 2012 -2015, or at a point close to the years 2030-2040, depending on the point of view adopted. But none of this relieves humanity from the base of gold, it seems stubbornly ignored so far, is that the natural resources of our land are not final, and management is not restricted to our generation, but must take into account the interests of future generations, while the remaining Vtaatkvl by the extent of our financial and Scull